MetService Severe Weather Warning
Issued at 8:57pm Wed 22 Oct 2025

Damaging gales and significant heavy rain for southern and central New Zealand on Thursday

An active front, associated with a significant deep low to the south, moves over southern and central New Zealand on Thursday.

Significant impacts are expected, and there is a possibility that Orange Warnings may be upgraded to Red Warnings. Please stay up to date with forecasts.



Heavy Rain Warning - Orange

Area: The headwaters of the Otago lakes and rivers
Period: 11 hours from 1:00am Thu 23 Oct to 12:00pm Thu 23 Oct
Forecast: Expect 140 to 200 mm of rain about the main divide, and to 80 to 150 mm within 40 km farther east. Peak rates of 30 to 40 mm/h expected about the divide Thursday morning. Thunderstorms possible. Snow level about 2500 metres.
Low chance of upgrading to a Red Warning.

The forecast event will have the five following conditions combining to cause elevated lake and river levels:

• Antecedent Conditions - Lake Wakatipu and Lake Wanaka are at an elevated level due to recent conditions and will stay elevated. The river catchments are already wet from previous heavy rain event in the last few days.
• Snowmelt - The freezing level for Monday's rainfall was ~1300m, resulting in some precipitation as snow. The freezing level is forecast to rise to 2500m for the event on Thursday adding likely snowmelt to river and lake levels.
• Heavy Rain - Currently early forecast is anticipating 200mm on the divide and around 80-100mm up to 40km east at an intensity of ~30mm/hour. 
• Thunderstorms - There may be thunderstorms involved resulting in more intense rainfall for certain areas. 
• Strong wind - 130kph gusts are currently being forecasted. This could exacerbate high lake levels and worsen the impacts of the event (waves)

Area: The headwaters of the Canterbury lakes and rivers
Period: 13 hours from 2:00am Thu 23 Oct to 3:00pm Thu 23 Oct
Forecast: Expect 200 to 250 mm of rain about the main divide. Within 40 km farther east, expect 100 to 160 mm south of Arthur's Pass and 60 to 100 mm elsewhere. Peak rates of 30 to 40 mm/h expected about the divide Thursday morning. Thunderstorms expected. Snow level about 2600 metres.
Low chance of upgrading to a Red Warning.

Impact: Streams and rivers may rise rapidly. Surface flooding, slips, and difficult driving conditions possible.
Action: Clear your drains and gutters to prepare for heavy rain. Avoid low-lying areas and drive cautiously.

Strong Wind Warning - Orange 

Area: Dunedin, Clutha, Southland and Stewart Island
Period: 13 hours from 3:00am Thu 23 Oct to 4:00pm Thu 23 Oct
Forecast: Severe gale northwesterlies gusting 120 km/h in exposed places, changing around midday Thursday to severe gale west to southwesterlies with damaging gusts of 130 km/h in exposed places, especially near the coast.
High chance of upgrading to a Red Warning.

Impact: Damage to trees, powerlines, and roofs is likely, with disruption to transport and power supply. Dangerous driving conditions expected, especially for high-sided vehicles and motorcycles.
Action: Secure items that can be picked up by strong winds. Take shelter and avoid unnecessary travel. Be prepared for power outages.

Area: Otago excluding Dunedin and Clutha
Period: 12 hours from 3:00am Thu 23 Oct to 3:00pm Thu 23 Oct
Forecast: Severe gale northwesterlies with damaging gusts of 130 km/h in exposed places.
Moderate chance of upgrading to a Red Warning.

Impact: Damage to trees, powerlines, and unsecured structures possible. Driving may be difficult, especially for high-sided vehicles and motorcycles.
Action: Prepare your property by securing items that can be picked up by strong winds. Drive cautiously.

Strong Wind Warning - Red

Area: Canterbury High Country
Period: 16 hours from 1:00am Thu 23 Oct to 5:00pm Thu 23 Oct
Forecast: Severe gale northwesterlies with damaging gusts of 150 km/h in exposed places.

Impact: Threat to life from flying items and falling trees. Destructive winds will cause widespread damage including powerlines and roofs, with dangerous driving conditions and significant disruption to transport and power supply.
Action: Stay indoors or seek sturdy shelter away from trees. Avoid travel. Be ready for power and communication outages.