Queenstown Lakes

Warnings

METSERVICE ISSUE SEVERE WEATHER WARNINGS AND WATCHES UPDATES FOR OTAGO AND CANTERBURY

Alert opened: 21 Oct 2025

MetService Severe Weather Warning
Issued at 8:59pm Tue 21 Oct 2025

Damaging gales and heavy rain for southern and central New Zealand on Thursday

An active front, associated with a significant deep low to the south, moves over southern and central New Zealand on Thursday.

Warnings and Watches for heavy rain and severe gales are in force.

Significant impacts are expected and there is a possibility that some Orange Warnings may be upgraded to Red Warnings. Please stay up to date with forecasts.

Heavy Rain Warning - Orange

Area: The headwaters of the Otago lakes and rivers
Period: 14 hours from 12:00am Thu 23 Oct to 2:00pm Thu 23 Oct
Forecast: Expect 180 to 220 mm of rain about the main divide, and to 70 to 150 mm within 40 km farther east. Peak rates of 30 to 40 mm/h expected about the divide Thursday morning. Thunderstorms possible. Snow level about 2500 metres.
Low chance of upgrading to a Red Warning.

The forecast event will have the five following conditions combining to cause elevated lake and river levels:

  • Recent Conditions - Glenorchy lagoon is currently at an elevated level of 311.8m.  Lake Wakatipu and Lake Wanaka are at an elevated level due to recent conditions and will stay elevated. The river catchments are already wet from previous heavy rain event in the last few days.
  • Snowmelt - The freezing level for Monday's rainfall was ~1300m, resulting in some precipitation as snow. The freezing level is forecast to rise to 2500m for the event on Thursday adding likely snowmelt to river and lake levels.
  • Heavy Rain - Currently the forecast is anticipating 200mm on the divide and around 100mm up to 30km east at an intensity of ~30mm/hour. 
  • Thunderstorms - There may be thunderstorms involved resulting in more intense rainfall for certain areas. 
  • Strong wind - 120kph gusts are currently being forecasted. This could exacerbate high lake levels and worsen the impacts of the event (waves).


Area: The headwaters of the Canterbury lakes and rivers
Period: 16 hours from 1:00am Thu 23 Oct to 5:00pm Thu 23 Oct
Forecast: Expect 200 to 250 mm of rain about the main divide, and 80 to 160 mm within 40 km farther east. Peak rates of 30 to 40 mm/h expected about the divide Thursday morning. Thunderstorms possible. Snow level about 2600 metres.
Low chance of upgrading to a Red Warning.

Impact: Streams and rivers may rise rapidly. Surface flooding, slips, and difficult driving conditions possible.
Action: Clear your drains and gutters to prepare for heavy rain. Avoid low-lying areas and drive cautiously.

Strong Wind Watch

Area: North Otago, Central Otago and Queenstown Lakes District
Period: 11 hours from 3:00am Thu 23 Oct to 2:00pm Thu 23 Oct
Forecast: Northwest winds may approach severe gale in exposed places.
High chance of upgrading to a Warning.

Area: Dunedin, Clutha, Southland and Stewart Island
Period: 13 hours from 3:00am Thu 23 Oct to 4:00pm Thu 23 Oct
Forecast: Northwest winds may reach severe gale in exposed places, followed by a change to southwest winds Thursday afternoon, which may also reach severe gale in exposed places.
High chance of upgrading to a Warning.

Impact: Damage to trees, powerlines, and unsecured structures possible. Driving may be difficult, especially for high-sided vehicles and motorcycles.
Action: Prepare your property by securing items that can be picked up by strong winds. Drive cautiously.